Ten Global Trends in the Shadow of the World Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis has major implications for international politics at present, and this is reflected in the contributions to Global Trends 2010. However, at a time when specific issues are dominating the agenda, Global Trends nonetheless aims to draw attention to longer-term developments which will also impact on our prosperity, security, opportunities for participation and, indeed, humankind’s prospects of survival now and, increasingly, in future.

Have a look at the following ten trends which will influence and change international politics on a sustained basis:

Trend 1: World Financial Crisis

The world financial crisis is a major setback to socioeconomic progress in large parts of the world, demonstrating conclusively that neoliberal paradigms are a spent force.
The economic consequences are being felt not only by the wealthy economies but also, and especially, by developing countries that are heavily dependent on foreign trade (especially commodities) and foreign capital inflows.
The economic progress achieved in recent years, especially in Africa, is at risk of being reversed.
Many emerging economies will be weakened for a transitional period, although their significance as new drivers of the world economy will increase overall.

Trend 2: End of the G7/8’s Monopoly

The world financial and economic crisis has finally discredited the G7/8’s monopoly on exclusive club rule.
The resurgence of more multilateral approaches is reflected in the G20’s assumption of key consultation and, in some cases, leadership functions.

Trend 3: Climate Change

Climate change has become the main driver of global environmental change, with far-reaching implications for societies, economies and the international system.
In vulnerable regions of the world, it is likely to trigger new conflict constellations as a consequence of food crises, a decrease in freshwater availability, storm and flood disasters, and crisis-induced migration.

Trend 4: Rearmament and Fragile Statehood

Security, as a policy field, is characterised by shifting and sometimes inconsistent trends:

Armed conflicts have been in decline since 1993.
But numerous countries continue to experience sporadic outbreaks of violence and are affected by fragile statehood; this applies especially to sub-Saharan Africa.
In parallel, a decade of rearmament has been observed since the end of the 1990s.
Multilateral arms control is in crisis, and a further proliferation of nuclear weapons is likely..

Trend 5: Religion as a Factor

The West has long underestimated the significance of religion as a factor in international and transnational relations.
In the academic discipline of “international relations” in particular, exercise of power and willingness to cooperate have generally been analysed in terms of the rational calculations of a “homo economicus”.
By contrast, the assumption of power by Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran back in 1979 and the ending of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan by mujahideen fighters were some of the first signs that global politics is crucially influenced by politico-religious identities and ideologies as well.

Trend 6: Urbanisation

The urbanisation process is steadily continuing.
As of 2007, more of the world’s people live in cities than rural regions, with most urban growth taking place in the emerging economies and developing countries.
The rise of megacities, most of which are located in the developing countries, poses a major development challenge.

Trend 7: Migration

The number of international migrants has increased threefold since 1960.
Although the proportion of migrants in the world population is fairly stable, the relative importance of migrants in the “ageing” industrial societies is increasing.
Migration has become the central human factor in transnational globalisation and, in view of the substantial rise in the number of women migrants, is increasingly acquiring a “female face”.
As the dark side of globalisation, human trafficking has become a multi-billion-dollar industry.

Trend 8: Inequality of “life chances”

There continues to be extreme inequality of “life chances” between and within world regions and societies, with the gap continuing to widen in some cases.
Sub-Saharan Africa in particular is lagging further and further behind; this region has bucked the global trend in that life expectancy here is decreasing, and as in South Asia, the health MDGs, for example, will not be achieved.
In contrast, East Asia is a “winner region” – albeit accompanied by growing social polarisation.

Trend 9: Internationalisation of Science/Technology

Scientific and technological progress is becoming increasingly “internationalised” in its organisation.
This is an outcome of greater market openness, but it is also a response to global problems.
The ongoing conflicts of interest over rules to protect intellectual property rights remain difficult.

Trend 10: New Governance Mechanisms

The hierarchical approach to global governance is increasingly being supplemented – and indeed in some cases supplanted – by new horizontal governance mechanisms.
These may be exclusive or inclusive in terms of the participation of various actors.
They often facilitate solutions to problems where multilateral processes have stalled and hegemonic approaches are likely to fail.
But they are not a panacea: multilateral governance structures remain indispensable in order to maximise coherence and provide a legitimate framework for action.